While the coin has conceptual potential as a store of value, and this potential is somewhat supported by the correlative evidence, the Dogecoin correlations are clear evidence that most of what happens to Bitcoin value is still being driven by idiosyncratic demand/risk factors unrelated to my thesis, but rather related to the success of cryptocurrency as a whole. Because I’m not optimistic about the prospects for the asset class, and Bitcoin’s price is mostly being driven by systematic risk to crypto, I have cut my Bitcoin position significantly. One possible concern with these correlative results is that the cryptocurrency markets could lead/lag traditional asset markets due to e.g. being less efficient. Dogecoin is a junk asset because no-one believes it is valuable, not even the creators, so the fact that Bitcoin correlates with it could suggest that Bitcoin also has junk characteristics. Although all three cryptocurrencies have a negative loading on Japanese QMJ, Dogecoin and Ethereum get substantially more negative coefficients.
We also see Ethereum and Bitcoin pick up a positive correlation with the gold price, and this correlation is not shared by Dogecoin. The results of this analysis are rather interesting: Bitcoin exhibits a small positive loading on US QMJ, which is not shared by the other two cryptos. In fact, such equities have returns that are lower, or at least no higher than their low-risk counterparts. Does crypto have value other than as a store of value? Personally, I have a hard time seeing a strong case here. Overall it seems that there is hope here for those who are bullish on Bitcoin because they believe it is a new safe-haven asset. One reason to believe that Bitcoin is a poor investment is because it is a rather volatile asset. Is Bitcoin a junk asset? 100% market share. It also seems very likely that if any cryptoasset reaches this point, it will be the coin with the best “brand name” i.e. Bitcoin. Level up and be the best video poker player! ’s best video poker app. Play video casino and win big with video poker app. Win big on authentic video poker machines, from Jacks or Better to Deuces Wild to Double Double Bonus Poker™.
Your poker bonus gets bigger each day you play casino poker! Play every day and spin the video poker bonus wheel for free coins. Tons of free coins to play every day! Specifically, to measure the correlation between assets A and B, I regress the (ranked) timeseries of A returns on the returns of the B, plus 1 day lagged/leading versions of B returns. One way that academics measure these effects is to construct “factor returns” that are the weighted average of the returns of other assets. One way to test this is to check whether the price co-moves with other junky assets. By averaging the returns of many stocks you ensure that the factor return is unrelated to the return of any one stock, and it just captures the part of the return that can be explained by “quality”. Quality minus junk: measures the returns to buying “quality” stocks which are profitable, growing, and low-risk, while selling their “junk” counterparts.
For example, you might construct the factor returns to “quality” by working what you would earn if you took a long position in the stock of companies with low year-to-year variation in earnings, low debt, and strong earnings growth, while shorting debt-ridden shrinking companies with no earnings consistency. You are not rewarded in the stock market for holding volatile equities which are heavily exposed to systematic risk. Betting against beta: measures the returns to buying stocks which are poorly correlated to the stock market as a whole, while short-selling stocks which strongly correlate with the market. I therefore think that Bitcoin is the only worthwhile cryptocurrency investment, and expect that the returns to holding non-Bitcoin cryptos should be zero or negative on average. This is good news for those worried that Bitcoin is valueless because it is a lottery, but by the same token, it is bad news for those who think Bitcoin is valuable because it is “digital gold”: there is no correlation with high-quality assets such as the precious metal or investment grade bonds. In particular, there is no particular correlation with junky assets or BAB/QMJ. This suggests that cryptocurrencies are remarkably uncorrelated with almost any other assets.
