That is-you can hedge your bets, and thus get a better risk-adjusted return, by covering your natural short position and buying Bitcoin now. You value certainty, and so you can profit not just by making money, but by reducing risk. At worst, if you prefer profits over reduced risk, you can always lever up to regain whatever level of risk you like. Even if you don’t know if Bitcoin would be worth more in a world where it’s widely used, the thing to do to reduce the risk of the price going up is to buy it now. Insofar as you think it likely for Bitcoin to be successful, you should buy Bitcoin; and insofar as you think it would be a good thing if Bitcoin is successful, you should sell Bitcoin. Similarly, you may simultaneously long for fiat money to be a thing of the past while also expecting governments to crack down before things reach that point.
It’s quite possible to think that Bitcoin is going to be widely used in the future while also bemoaning the stupendous amount of energy used (“wasted”) to mine it. This is a bit tricky, because if you like Bitcoin (think it’s a net good for the world), you’ll likely be bullish about Bitcoin’s future. These two sides may well balance out-if you think that a world in which Bitcoin is successful is a good one, but also that it’s fairly likely (but not certain) to come about, you should be reluctant to short Bitcoin: after all, it’s likely you’ll lose a lot of money on the trade, despite how good a consolation prize that short position would be if Bitcoin doesn’t take off. Similarly, you should be reluctant to buy Bitcoin: even if you think Bitcoin is likely (but not certain) to go up, it would really, really suck if you end up both not actually getting to live in the awesome world you hoped for in which Bitcoin wins, and at the same time also be out all that money you spent on now-worthless Bitcoin.
1 So if you think you’re going to have any expenses denominated in Bitcoin in your future-for instance if you think it likely that groceries and rent will be priced in Bitcoin-you are, as it were, short that amount of Bitcoin: you expect that you’ll have to get that Bitcoin from somewhere to fund your purchases. That is-if you think you’d enjoy living in the possible future world where Bitcoin really takes off and replaces all other money, but you’re less than completely certain that this will actually happen, then the possible futures where Bitcoin is successful represent good futures for you, or at least ones that are better than the alternative. If Bitcoin takes over the world, each one of the limited supply of Bitcoins will be of greater value, so you should buy some now when it’s (relatively) cheap. But there is another reason to buy Bitcoin if you think it likely to succeed, even if you think that the chance of success is already fully priced into the current price of Bitcoin! There is an impressive number of games in the library, considering this is a brand-new casino. There are over 7,000 games from more than 90 providers.
The selection of traditional table games is equally impressive. So I claim: you should buy Bitcoin to the extent that you are more confident in Bitcoin’s success than in its potential for making the world a better place, and likewise sell Bitcoin short to the extent that your confidence in its goodness is greater than your confidence in its success. So you probably should only buy or short Bitcoin a bit, if at all. Thus from a risk-adjusted perspective, you should hedge your bets by selling Bitcoin short now: you make yourself happier in the (sad) worlds where Bitcoin fails, in exchange for making yourself sadder in the (happy) world where Bitcoin is a success. You’ve hedged your bets-in the timelines where Bitcoin is a failure, at least you’ll have the money you made shorting Bitcoin as a consolation prize, though in the world where Bitcoin is a success your happiness ends up somewhat tempered by the money you lost. I’m assuming that you, like every human being, are at least somewhat risk-averse. If you think Bitcoin succeeding would be good, you are structurally long Bitcoin, and should hedge your position by selling short now. The second half-that you should sell Bitcoin insofar as you think that it would be awesome to live in a future in which Bitcoin has won-is true for symmetrical reasons.
